SPACE WEATHER, THE WEATHER, AND MR. GLOBALONEY By for Giza Death Star
Today is an unusual blog in that there are two feature articles, one shared by N.S., and the other by M.W., both regular readers and contributors of articles here. The reason I’m including both articles today is because of my daily high octane speculation: I suspect they may be linked.
So let’s begin with a fundamental premise (at least, it is for me): the Sun and its cycles have a far larger effect on terrestrial weather than we’d like to think. In fact, this stands to reason if, like me, you share the view that weather systems on Earth are not just about cold fronts and warm fronts and high and low pressure systems, relative humidity, and so on, but also that the atmosphere also functions as an electromagnetic medium, in short, as a kind of plasma under certain circumstances, and that some weather systems have a large – and little understood – electromagnetic component, tornadoes and hurricanes for example. Indeed, a few minutes’ search of tornadoes and all the associated eyewitness accounts of strange things associated with them with convince perhaps even the hardened skeptic that there’s something more going on than just a big natural vortex of wind and a vacuum cleaner. There are all sorts of stories of people looking up into the funnel of tornadoes and seeing all sorts of electrical arcing inside the vortex, not to mention those stories of blades of grass, or hay, being driven like nails into tree trunks, and so on. Are those to be explained solely as wind-and-pressure phenomena (the conventional explanation), or is something else involved as well?
I think you see the point, so with that in mind, ponder this article shared by N.S., on the nature of the Sun’s “electromagnetic weather”:
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The essence of this article is that the normal 10-15 year solar cycle may be presaging, not another “minimum,” but just the opposite, a maximum:
Something big may be about to happen on the sun. “We call it the Termination Event,” says Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), “and it’s very, very close to happening.”
If you’ve never heard of the Termination Event, you’re not alone. Many researchers have never heard of it either. It’s a relatively new idea in solar physics championed by McIntosh and colleague Bob Leamon of the University of Maryland – Baltimore County. According to the two scientists, vast bands of magnetism are drifting across the surface of the sun. When oppositely-charged bands collide at the equator, they annihilate (or “terminate”). There’s no explosion; this is magnetism, not anti-matter. Nevertheless, the Termination Event is a big deal. It can kickstart the next solar cycle into a higher gear.
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“If the Terminator Event happens soon, as we expect, new Solar Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since record-keeping began,” says McIntosh.
This is, to say the least, controversial. Most solar physicists believe that Solar Cycle 25 will be weak, akin to the anemic Solar Cycle 24 which barely peaked back in 2012-2013. Orthodox models of the sun’s inner magnetic dynamo favor a weak cycle and do not even include the concept of “terminators.”
“What can I say?” laughs McIntosh. “We’re heretics!”
We found that the longer the time between terminators, the weaker the next cycle would be,” explains Leamon. “Conversely, the shorter the time between terminators, the stronger the next solar cycle would be.”
Example: Sunspot Cycle 4 began with a terminator in 1786 and ended with a terminator in 1801, an unprecedented 15 years later. The following cycle, 5, was incredibly weak with a peak amplitude of just 82 sunspots. That cycle would become known as the beginning of the “Dalton” Grand Minimum.
Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be the opposite. Instead of a long interval, it appears to be coming on the heels of a very short one, only 10 years since the Terminator Event that began Solar Cycle 24. Previous solar cycles with such short intervals have been among the strongest in recorded history.
Now, before we continue to the next article, a little anecdotal information. During these “minimums” there are noticeable changes in the Earth’s weather, and that for a very good reason. Think of the Earth as the load end of a vast electrical circuit with the Sun being the power source. With less energy entering the circuit during solar minimums, less energy appears in the load end, and weather conditions change. Storms may exhibit overall less intensity, temperatures may overall exhibit a decline, and so on. Anecdotally, I live in an area of the USA where spring and autumn are usually accompanied by severe storms and tornadoes. This year, during a minimum, there has been a period of unusually low temperatures for the season, and relatively fewer storms of the “severe variety”. Weather has also become “stranger”. Just two weeks ago, there was a light rain with little to no lightning. Then – BAM – an enormous lightning strike somewhere close: my internet cable was completely fried (along with the modem), and both had to be completely replaced. This strike exceeded anything I have experienced during severe storms, and appeared to be highly localized, and occurred only once. Storms are also tracking very differently than the norm during rainy season. Anyone living in the midwest or plains of the USA is familiar with that pattern: storms generally track from southwest to northeast. Yet, this year, they’ve been all over the place, the most recent incident (just last night) being a small storm system moving from due north to south! Nor need it be necessary to remind anyone that weather systems are complex, open, multi-variable systems, and the Earth’s weakening magnetic field and other conditions also play significant roles.
